Shollmier Fund, University of Arkansas · Energy and Financials research
May 2026
Master of Science, Finance
University of Arkansas, Sam M. Walton College of Business
2017–2025
Senior Asset Manager
Keathley-Patterson Consolidated Electrical Distributors · Springdale, AR
2017
Senior Client Relationship Manager
RetailData LLC · Bentonville, AR
2012–2017
Associate Business Manager, Competitive Pricing
Acosta Sales and Marketing · Rogers, AR
May 2012
BS, Business Administration (Economics/Finance)
University of Arkansas
FLAGSHIP RESEARCH
Free Cash Flow Dogs
Dogs of the Dow ranks on yield alone. This version asks a harder question: does the cash flow actually cover the dividend, and has it for five years? The screen narrows the Dow 30, S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 to mature, cash-generative dividend payers, then tests every survivor on five years of free cash flow from SEC filings. Results and first-pass verdicts for all 15 names are published: 4 kept, 8 on watch, 3 cut.
Screen as of 28 Sep 202615 names passedFY2021–FY2025SEC filings
The work that best shows how I think, research and build. Each item goes directly to the material behind it.
01 · Investment researchActive
Free Cash Flow Dogs
A revised Dogs of the Dow framework. Start with mature, cash-generative businesses, then examine FCF, dividends, valuation, balance-sheet strength and potential mispricing.
Dow 30S&P 500NASDAQ-100Screen as of 28 Sep 2026 · 15 survivors
What I did
Rebuilt the Dogs of the Dow screen across the Dow 30, S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100. 15 names passed the 28 Sep 2026 screen; each was then tested on five fiscal years of SEC-filed cash flow.
How
FY2021–FY2025 free cash flow, FCF per share, normalized FCF, dividend/FCF coverage and net debt, so names pass on cash generation rather than on yield alone. PYPL passed but was held out as a financial.
What it shows
Fundamental screening with explicit rules, plus judgment applied where the rules stop. Five-year results, valuation and first-pass verdicts for all 15 names are published.
A mechanical weekly screen for contracts that meet a required return while minimizing relative assignment risk. The methodology separates hard rules from research judgment.
ReturnLiquidityDeltaCatalysts
What I did
Designed a mechanical weekly screen for short-put contracts that meet a required return.
How
Hard rules (liquidity, strike distance, no earnings or binary events), then a 0–105 assignment-risk score built from delta, ATR distance, trend/support, ATR %, liquidity and a catalyst penalty.
What it shows
Separating mechanical rules from research judgment, and stating what a score does and does not mean.
Browser app for cash-secured put, bull put spread and covered call workflows: option-chain analysis, risk/return calculations, payoff charts, wheel cycles and trade tracking.
BuilderTradesAnalyticsTickers
What I did
Designed the workflow, risk rules and calculations for a wheel-strategy planner, and built it as a browser app using AI-assisted development.
How
Ranks strikes from the option chain, then charts profit and loss at expiration and before it, with breakevens, Greeks and a model chance of profit. It also keeps a trade ledger, wheel cycles and per-ticker risk limits.
What it shows
Turning a strategy into repeatable, checkable risk tooling. The public version runs on sample trades.
A review of an energy-focused student equity portfolio against its income mandate, introducing a Yield/Beta framework for income efficiency relative to market risk.
YieldBetaIncome mandate
What I did
Reviewed an energy-focused student equity portfolio against its income mandate.
How
Identified structural problems in the mandate, then introduced a Yield/Beta framework that measures income efficiency relative to market risk.
What it shows
Portfolio review and written recommendations, which is the work a client or investment committee reads.
Research is where the site stops being a résumé and starts showing the actual analytical work: frameworks, company analysis, valuation questions and portfolio thinking.
Flagship research
Free Cash Flow Dogs
Dividend stocks screened on free cash flow rather than yield alone, then tested on five fiscal years of SEC filings.
Detailed study below
Options / income
Monday Options Screener
A mechanical weekly screen designed to find contracts with required return while minimizing relative assignment risk. Not a cash substitute.
Methodology below
Flagship project
Free Cash Flow Dogs
Dogs of the Dow, improved: cash flow first, yield second.
A screen for dividend-paying companies in the Dow 30, S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 that cover their dividend with real free cash flow and trade at a reasonable price for that cash flow.
The problem
Yield alone misleads
Dogs of the Dow buys the highest-yielding blue chips. A high yield can be a bargain, or it can be the market pricing in a dividend cut. A yield ranking cannot tell the two apart.
The method
Cash flow decides
Start with mature companies. Screen on price to free cash flow, dividend, payout, margins, return on capital and debt. Test every survivor on five fiscal years of SEC-filed cash flow, then give it a Keep, Watch or Cut verdict against four written measures.
The aim
A shortlist you can check
A short list of dividend payers worth a deeper look, with every rule, figure and source published so each verdict can be checked or challenged. It is research, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Where it stands
UniversesDow 30 · S&P 500 · NASDAQ-100
Current survivorsScreen as of 28 Sep 2026 · 4 Dow · 7 S&P 500 · 4 NASDAQ-100 · 15 total
Dow 30IBM · UNH · CVX · HD
S&P 500ACN · BF.B · BR · COP · EOG · SNA · STZ
NASDAQ-100ADP · INTU · NXPI · QCOM (PYPL also passed; held out as a financial)
ResultsFive fiscal years for all 15 names, from SEC 10-K filings · table below
NextDeep dives on the four keeps · quarterly re-screen
Results · five fiscal years per company
What the cash flow shows
Every company that passed the screen, tested on its last five reported fiscal years. Figures come straight from SEC 10-K filings, retrieved 13 Oct 2026. Two tables of evidence, then a first-pass keep / watch / cut verdict on every name, with the test written out.
Ticker
Index
Latest FY end
FCF latest FY ($B)
FCF / share latest
5-yr median FCF / share
FCF / share growth, 4 yrs (annual)
3 yrs (annual)
1 yr
Volatility
Dividend / share growth, 4 yrs
FCF ÷ dividends paid
Net debt ÷ FCF
IBM
Dow 30
Dec 2025
12.10
12.76
12.76
+1.8%
+8.6%
−3.6%
11%
+0.6%
1.93x
3.94x
UNH
Dow 30
Dec 2025
16.07
17.65
22.29
−4.0%
−10.5%
−20.8%
15%
+11.7%
2.03x
3.36x
CVX
Dow 30
Dec 2025
16.59
8.94
10.52
−5.1%
−22.8%
+8.0%
34%
+6.5%
1.30x
2.08x
HD
Dow 30
Feb 2026
12.65
12.71
13.24
−1.0%
+4.3%
−22.7%
17%
+8.7%
1.38x
4.30x
ACN
S&P 500
Aug 2025
10.87
17.19
13.73
+7.2%
+7.8%
+26.9%
10%
+13.9%
2.94x
−0.58x
BF.B
S&P 500
Apr 2026
0.89
1.91
0.95
+3.6%
+26.2%
+110.0%
35%
−14.8%
2.09x
2.46x
BR
S&P 500
Jun 2026
1.23
10.53
7.92
+35.5%
+18.8%
+17.9%
34%
+11.1%
2.78x
2.31x
COP
S&P 500
Dec 2025
7.24
5.78
7.23
−10.0%
−25.9%
−14.8%
35%
+16.1%
1.81x
2.34x
EOG
S&P 500
Dec 2025
3.45
6.32
8.83
−7.0%
−15.2%
−37.7%
16%
−5.4%
1.60x
1.32x
SNA
S&P 500
Jan 2026
1.01
18.98
18.98
+3.9%
+20.3%
−10.5%
21%
+14.8%
2.18x
−0.42x
STZ
S&P 500
Feb 2026
1.79
10.22
n/r
n/r
n/r
−4.3%
n/r
n/r
2.51x
5.83x
ADP
NASDAQ-100
Jun 2026
4.78
11.84
8.75
+18.3%
+10.6%
+10.2%
22%
+13.2%
1.82x
0.15x
INTU
NASDAQ-100
Jul 2026
8.62
31.11
16.91
+24.6%
+22.5%
+44.7%
32%
+15.3%
6.40x
0.34x
NXPI
NASDAQ-100
Dec 2025
2.42
9.53
9.53
+3.3%
−3.9%
+19.5%
11%
+15.9%
2.36x
3.70x
QCOM
NASDAQ-100
Sep 2025
12.82
11.60
8.75
+11.4%
+24.5%
+17.5%
22%
+6.9%
3.37x
0.72x
Valuation at the 12 Oct 2026 close
Price divided by the free cash flow per share above. The five-year median is the anchor: it stops one unusually good or bad year from setting the multiple. Prices are Cboe delayed-quote closing prices for 12 Oct 2026.
Showing the 12 Oct 2026 snapshot.
Ticker
Index
Price ($)
P / FCF, latest FY
P / FCF, 5-yr median
FCF yield, 5-yr median
Dividend yield, latest FY
Verdict
IBM
Dow 30
227.02
17.8x
17.8x
5.6%
2.96%
Keep
UNH
Dow 30
378.52
21.5x
17.0x
5.9%
2.31%
Watch
CVX
Dow 30
215.00
24.1x
20.4x
4.9%
3.18%
Cut
HD
Dow 30
290.62
22.9x
22.0x
4.6%
3.17%
Cut
ACN
S&P 500
214.87
12.5x
15.7x
6.4%
2.76%
Keep
BF.B
S&P 500
26.81
14.0x
28.2x
3.5%
3.41%
Watch
BR
S&P 500
166.41
15.8x
21.0x
4.8%
2.34%
Watch
COP
S&P 500
137.56
23.8x
19.0x
5.3%
2.31%
Watch
EOG
S&P 500
150.51
23.8x
17.1x
5.9%
2.65%
Watch
SNA
S&P 500
361.99
19.1x
19.1x
5.2%
2.45%
Keep
STZ
S&P 500
126.40
12.4x
n/r
n/r
3.23%
Cut
ADP
NASDAQ-100
273.81
23.1x
31.3x
3.2%
2.43%
Watch
INTU
NASDAQ-100
305.99
9.8x
18.1x
5.5%
1.57%
Keep
NXPI
NASDAQ-100
225.21
23.6x
23.6x
4.2%
1.80%
Watch
QCOM
NASDAQ-100
174.43
15.0x
19.9x
5.0%
2.00%
Watch *
First-pass verdicts (13 Oct 2026). Each name is tested on four measures from the tables above: FCF ÷ dividends at least 1.25x · net debt ÷ FCF under 4x · FCF per share flat or rising over four years · P/FCF on the five-year median at 20x or less. Pass all four: Keep. Fail one: Watch. Fail two or more: Cut. A figure that could not be retrieved counts as a fail. The test is strict on purpose for the first pass.
These verdicts are fixed at the 12 Oct 2026 close. The Screen board re-runs the same four measures at the latest close, so a name can show a different status there.
* QCOM passes all four measures but is moved to Watch by judgment: its 19.9x multiple clears the line by 0.1x, it fails the NASDAQ-100 five-year EPS growth test on current data, and its FY2026 results are due in November. Verdicts are research conclusions, not recommendations to buy or sell.
Five-year history: FCF ($B) and FCF per share, oldest to latest fiscal year
Ticker
Fiscal years
FCF FY1
FY2
FY3
FY4
FY5
FCF/sh FY1
FY2
FY3
FY4
FY5
IBM
Dec 2021 – Dec 2025
10.73
9.09
12.69
12.40
12.10
11.87
9.96
13.76
13.23
12.76
UNH
Dec 2021 – Dec 2025
19.89
23.40
25.68
20.70
16.07
20.80
24.64
27.38
22.29
17.65
CVX
Dec 2021 – Dec 2025
21.13
37.63
19.78
15.04
16.59
11.01
19.40
10.52
8.28
8.94
HD
Jan 2022 – Feb 2026
14.01
11.50
17.95
16.32
12.65
13.24
11.22
17.91
16.44
12.71
ACN
Aug 2021 – Aug 2025
8.40
8.82
9.00
8.61
10.87
13.00
13.73
14.09
13.55
17.19
BF.B
Apr 2022 – Apr 2026
0.80
0.46
0.42
0.43
0.89
1.66
0.95
0.88
0.91
1.91
BR
Jun 2022 – Jun 2026
0.37
0.75
0.94
1.06
1.23
3.13
6.29
7.92
8.93
10.53
COP
Dec 2021 – Dec 2025
11.67
18.16
8.72
8.01
7.24
8.79
14.20
7.23
6.78
5.78
EOG
Dec 2021 – Dec 2025
4.94
6.09
5.16
5.77
3.45
8.46
10.38
8.83
10.14
6.32
SNA
Jan 2022 – Jan 2026
0.90
0.59
1.06
1.13
1.01
16.30
10.90
19.65
21.20
18.98
STZ
Feb 2022 – Feb 2026
1.68
1.72
1.51
1.94
1.79
n/r
n/r
8.21
10.68
10.22
ADP
Jun 2022 – Jun 2026
2.55
3.64
3.59
4.39
4.78
6.05
8.75
8.72
10.75
11.84
INTU
Jul 2022 – Jul 2026
3.66
4.79
4.63
6.08
8.62
12.89
16.91
16.32
21.49
31.11
NXPI
Dec 2021 – Dec 2025
2.31
2.83
2.69
2.06
2.42
8.38
10.73
10.28
7.97
9.53
QCOM
Sep 2021 – Sep 2025
8.65
6.83
9.85
11.16
12.82
7.53
6.01
8.75
9.88
11.60
Definitions. Free cash flow = cash from operations minus capital expenditures (including capitalized or purchased software where the company reports it as a separate line). FCF per share uses diluted weighted-average shares. Volatility = standard deviation of FCF per share ÷ its five-year average. Net debt = short-term and long-term debt minus cash and equivalents at the latest fiscal year end (operating leases excluded), divided by latest-year FCF. A negative net debt means more cash than debt. n/r = not retrieved.
The screens (run 28 Sep 2026, FinViz and StockAnalysis).
Dow 30: P/FCF under 20x · dividend yield over 2% · positive dividend growth · FCF payout under 80% · FCF margin over 10%. 4 passed.
S&P 500: P/FCF under 18x · dividend yield over 2.5% · positive dividend growth · earnings payout under 80% · FCF payout under 75% · FCF margin over 10% · ROIC over 10% · operating margin over 10% · debt/equity under 1.5 · financials excluded. 7 passed.
NASDAQ-100: P/FCF under 25x · FCF payout under 80% · FCF margin over 15% · ROIC over 15% · operating margin over 15% · debt/equity under 1.0 · no dividend requirement. 5 passed; PYPL is held out as a financial, leaving 4.
Read with care. IBM's own FCF definition excludes changes in financing receivables, so its reported FCF is higher than the standardized figure here. CVX, COP and EOG include the 2022 commodity-price spike, which is why the five-year median matters more than the growth rates; EOG's dividends per share include special dividends. COP's 2023–2025 capital spending is its reported "capital expenditures and investments." HD spent $17.6B (FY2024) and $5.4B (FY2025) on acquisitions, which drives its net debt. BF.B's FY2022 dividends include a special dividend, which turns its dividend growth negative. STZ's per-share figures start in FY2024 because of its FY2023 share-class reclassification. ADP's capital spending includes additions to intangibles (largely software). UNH reported Q3 2026 results on 13 Oct; this table uses completed fiscal years only. The screen itself used trailing-twelve-month data from FinViz and StockAnalysis, so multiples here, built on completed fiscal years, can sit above the screen's P/FCF cut-off. EOG's dividend yield includes special dividends.
Earnings, binary events, SEC filings, dilution, offerings, warrants, converts, material agreements, IR, lockups, litigation and crypto exposure.
Assignment-risk score
Delta 30 · ATR distance 20 · trend/support 15 · ATR % 10 · liquidity 10 · catalyst 0–20. Scores run 0–105: up to 85 from the five components, plus a 0–20 catalyst penalty. Lower score means lower relative assignment risk, not a probability of assignment.
Screens
Screen board.
Every company in the Dow 30, S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100, run through the same published rules. Each one is tagged by what it passes and ranked by dividend yield per unit of market risk.
Research labels, not advice. These tags come from published, mechanical screens applied to public data (SEC filings and delayed market prices). They describe whether a company passes a rule on a given date, not whether anyone should buy, sell or hold it. Data can be late, incomplete or wrong. Nothing here is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Do your own research or consult a licensed professional.
Pays a regular dividend and passes all four Free Cash Flow Dogs measures: free cash flow covers dividends paid at least 1.25 times · net debt is under 4 times free cash flow · FCF per share is flat or higher than at the start of the period · price is no more than 20 times median FCF per share over the period. The period is the last five fiscal years, or four where only four could be verified. A figure that can't be retrieved counts as a fail.
Watch
Pays a dividend and fails exactly one of the four measures.
Fails screen
Pays a dividend and fails two or more of the four measures.
Fortress Compounder
Total debt at or below shareholders' equity (D/E ≤ 1.0x) · net debt under 4 times free cash flow · positive free cash flow in every year of the period · FCF per share flat or rising · steady FCF per share (standard deviation no more than half the average) · price no more than 25 times median FCF per share.
Trajectory Suspect
Debt at least 3 times equity, but total debt lower than a year earlier and the price above its 200-day average. High leverage that is coming down, with the price starting to confirm it. Unproven until it is.
Balance-sheet flag
Debt at least 3 times equity and not falling, or net debt more than 4 times free cash flow (including net debt with negative free cash flow).
Wheel candidate
Liquid (average daily trading value of at least $100 million over 60 sessions) and not tagged Fails screen, Balance-sheet flag or Trajectory Suspect. The next earnings date is shown so it can be checked against a 28–56 day expiry window. Strikes and deltas are chosen separately in the Wheel Tracker; this tag checks the stock, not the option.
Financial · REIT
Banks, insurers and REITs skip the free-cash-flow tags. Their cash flow and leverage don't mean the same thing as an industrial company's. They still get a Y/B rank.
Not covered
No 10-K annual history on SEC EDGAR: foreign filers (20-F/40-F) and recent listings or spin-offs.
Y/B rank
Indicated annual regular dividend ÷ price (special dividends excluded), divided by beta calculated the way Value Line publishes it: five years of weekly returns against the NYSE Composite, then adjusted toward 1.0 (0.67 × raw beta + 0.35). The adjustment stops a near-zero raw beta from pushing a stock to the top. Ranked 1 to N among dividend payers; everyone else shows "no yield" or "—". The beta shown is the one used in the rank.
DATA AND METHOD
Universe: Dow 30 and S&P 500 constituents from Wikipedia and NASDAQ-100 constituents from Nasdaq.com, de-duplicated: 518 tickers, 515 companies (GOOG/GOOGL, FOX/FOXA and NWS/NWSA count once).
Fundamentals: each company's 10-K figures from SEC XBRL company facts, checked year by year against Yahoo Finance's standardized statements. Where the two disagree by more than 10%, the standardized figure is used (112 companies had at least one year replaced). Free cash flow = operating cash flow minus capital expenditures; FCF per share uses diluted shares, adjusted for stock splits. Net debt = short- and long-term debt minus cash; leases excluded.
The 15 names in the Free Cash Flow Dogs study use the hand-verified figures published on the Research page. QCOM passes all four measures but stays at Watch, the published judgment call.
Prices are Yahoo Finance daily closes, matched to Nasdaq.com closing prices for 513 of 515 names (the other two have no Nasdaq quote). Dividends are Yahoo Finance's indicated annual regular dividend, cross-checked against each company's payment history; the 13 that differ by more than 10% are noted in the CSV. Beta is calculated with Value Line's published method from Yahoo Finance weekly prices (it reproduces Value Line's 0.50 for General Mills); the unadjusted five-year monthly beta against SPY is in the CSV. Earnings dates are Nasdaq.com's expected dates.
Limits: both sources can lag or differ in definition (finance subsidiaries at GM, Deere and Caterpillar, for example). Where a company tags no debt at all and no standardized figure exists, debt is treated as zero (noted per row in the CSV). Prices, yields, P/FCF, tags and the Y/B rank are re-run automatically after each US market close (Yahoo Finance closing prices). Fundamentals, betas, dividends, the 200-day test, liquidity and earnings dates change only at a full refresh, dated above. Check the dates before relying on a tag.
Tools
Analysis that turns into a tool.
Analytical work becomes more useful when it turns into something repeatable.
Browser app · wheel strategy
Natural State Alpha Wheel Tracker
Wheel-strategy planner with Dashboard, Trades, Builder, Tickers, Analytics and Settings. The Builder ranks strikes from the option chain for cash-secured puts, short puts, covered calls and bull put spreads, and charts the profit and loss at expiration and on any day before it, with breakevens, Greeks and a model chance of profit. The tracker keeps the trade ledger, wheel cycles, ticker risk limits and analytics. It opens with sample trades; live option chains are reserved for the owner.
The Whitfields: A Retirement Plan, Worked End to End
A hypothetical Bentonville couple retiring at 61 and 59 with $2.8 million. Investment policy statement, asset location, a Social Security and Roth-conversion income plan, and 10,000 simulated markets showing why $150,000 a year fails and $130,000 holds, using real 2026 tax rules and Vanguard forecasts.
Case study · 20262,147 words
Client Communication · Sample
Third-Quarter 2026 Letter to the Whitfields
The quarterly letter that goes with the plan: what rising rates did to their bonds, why nothing needs to change, and the year-end checklist before their last paychecks. Real Q3 2026 fund returns, in plain English.
Sample letter · 2026900 words
Finance · Human-AI Collaboration
Centaur Finance
Redefining analyst workflows, decision architecture and alpha generation through human-AI collaboration. An examination of how AI changes financial research, where human judgment remains essential, and how a governed human-AI workflow can improve research scale without surrendering accountability.
Academic paper · 20254,408 words
Technology · Walmart · Supply Chain
The Three-Layer Stack
Integrating blockchain, cloud and AI for actionable insights. Using Walmart's food-traceability work as the case study, this piece examines the practical relationship between blockchain, cloud infrastructure and AI—and what the technology means for trust, traceability and decision-making.
Academic paper · 20266,983 words
Capital for Everyone · Book Project
Chapter One: The Piketty Trap
The opening chapter of Capital for Everyone: A Roadmap to Universal Prosperity, examining capital concentration, Piketty's diagnosis, and the case for broadening ownership rather than destroying the compounding engine.
Book chapter · 20264,913 words
Portfolio Management · Energy · Income
Energy Portfolio Review
Reviewing an energy-focused student equity portfolio for income mandate compliance. A practical portfolio review identifying structural problems in an energy-income mandate and introducing a Yield/Beta framework for evaluating income efficiency relative to market risk.
Portfolio review · 20261,042 words
Risk · Factor Models · Python
Equity Risk Decomposition
Tractor Supply vs Intel, 2006–2025. CAPM, the Fama-French three-factor model and a rolling one-year beta show where each stock's risk comes from, why Intel's long-run beta understated its 2025 market sensitivity, and where a volatility model is still needed.
Research paper · 20262,019 words
Corporate Finance · EVA · Industrials
Honeywell: The Parts Were Worth More
An EVA test of Honeywell's breakup using FY2024 data. Segment costs of capital show Aerospace producing 78% of segment EVA while Industrial Automation earned less than its cost of capital, with an epilogue on the 2025–26 spin-offs.
Research paper · 20251,395 words
Book project · Active
Capital for Everyone
Capital for Everyone: A Roadmap to Universal Prosperity. An economics and wealth-inequality project. 22 chapters are drafted and the book is now in edit.
Chapter One available above
Stuart Reid
Capital for Everyone
A Roadmap to Universal Prosperity
Book · in edit · 22 chapters drafted
Capital for Everyone
Capital compounds, and most people don't own any. The book takes Piketty's diagnosis seriously and argues for broadening ownership rather than breaking the compounding engine.
Outside sites open in a new tab. No affiliation with any of them; some require a subscription.
About
Stuart Reid
Finance is most useful when complicated information becomes a decision someone can actually use.
MSc Finance graduate from the University of Arkansas and Deputy Portfolio Manager for the Shollmier Fund, with 13+ years of analytical and client-facing experience.
The work sits at the intersection of investment research, portfolio analytics, financial modeling and practical decision support. Python, Excel and AI are tools. Judgment remains the point.
EducationMSc Finance, University of Arkansas — May 2026
